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Prediction for CME (2024-03-05T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-05T21:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29475/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The CME appears to have a bright core in initial frames before fading as it progresses throughout the SOHO LASCO C3 field of view. The source is a filament eruption centered around S40E35, but stretches between S25E20 to S55E50 with a southern deflection as it erupts. The eruption begins around 2024-03-06T20:00Z in SDO/AIA and GOES SUVI 304 with associated dimming visible in SDO/AIA 193, brightening in SDO/AIA 304, and minor moving/opening field lines in GOES SUVI 284. A brief post-eruptive arcade is also visible in SDO/AIA 171 and 193 starting around 2024-03-06T00:00Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-08T21:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.67
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Mar 07 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
The CME associated with a filament eruption centered near S35E40 that
was observed in coronagraph imagery starting at 05/2136 UTC was analyzed
and indicated most of the ejecta is likely south and behind Earth's
orbit. However, a portion of the ejecta could slightly graze the Earth
late on 08 Mar into early 09 Mar.

Solar Wind

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near nominal levels on
07-08 Mar. Enhancements in the solar wind environment are then possible
late on 08 Mar as a small, negative polarity CH HSS combines with the
anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 05 Mar.

Geospace

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 07-08 Mar, with a chance
for isolated active periods late on 08 Mar. The increase in activity is
due to the possible combined effects from a weak, negative polarity CH
HSS and the anticipated grazing impacts from the CME that left the Sun
on 05 Mar. Conditions are then expected to increase to unsettled to
active levels, with likely periods of isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storming on 09 Mar as the CME effects increase.

----------------------

:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 05 Mar 007
Estimated Ap 06 Mar 008
Predicted Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 008-015-020

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Active                10/35/35
Minor storm           05/25/35
Moderate storm        01/10/15
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 07 Mar - 09 Mar
             Mar 07    Mar 08    Mar 09
00-03UT        2.33      2.33      3.67      
03-06UT        2.00      2.00      4.67      
06-09UT        2.00      2.00      3.67      
09-12UT        2.00      3.00      3.33      
12-15UT        2.00      3.00      3.33      
15-18UT        2.00      3.33      3.33      
18-21UT        2.00      3.33      2.67      
21-00UT        2.33      4.33      2.33      

----------------------

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Mar 07 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 07-Mar 09 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 07-Mar 09 2024

             Mar 07       Mar 08       Mar 09
00-03UT       3.00         2.33         3.67     
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       2.33         2.00         3.67     
09-12UT       2.67         3.00         3.33     
12-15UT       2.00         3.00         3.33     
15-18UT       2.00         3.33         3.33     
18-21UT       2.00         3.33         2.67     
21-00UT       2.33         4.33         2.33     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Mar due to
possible arrival of the CME from 05 Mar.

Lead Time: 57.65 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2024-03-06T11:21Z

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